Canadian refugee advocates, federal government departments and immigration lawyers are bracing for a potential influx of asylum claimants following U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive orders this week.

But as they prepare, they all say they have no idea what exactly to expect.

“With Trump, crystal balls are hard to keep clear,” said Gabriela Ramo, past chair of the Canadian Bar Association’s immigration section.

“We share a border with an elephant and he is talking about deporting 11 million people.”

On Monday, Trump signed a series of executive orders that risk having a sweeping effect:

• Ending birthright citizenship for those born in the U.S. whose parents were in the country illegally or temporarily.
• Increasing security at the border.
• Tightening enforcement of immigration laws including promised mass deportations of millions of immigrants.
• Suspending the U.S. refugee assistance program.
• Recognizing only male and female gender identities.

Aleks Dughman Manzur, co-executive director of the Vancouver-based Rainbow Refugee Society, says Canadian groups dedicated to helping LGBTQ refugees have received more than 900 inquiries since Trump was re-elected. The group doesn’t yet know how many of them may claim refugee status in Canada, fearing that Trump’s policies will fuel transphobia and put their safety at risk.

Dughman Manzur said American citizens can simply travel to Canada and then claim refugee status once inside the country.

However, under the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the U.S., those who don’t have American citizenship or who are undocumented risk being turned back to the U.S. if they try to claim asylum at a regular border crossing. They may instead try to cross undetected then remain in hiding for 14 days in order to claim asylum without being returned to the U.S.

Miller says Canada is ‘prepared for any eventuality’ amid Trump immigration crackdown

Dughman Manzur said Rainbow Refugees Society is planning to make videos to help those who have questions about claiming asylum in Canada.

Ramo agrees that Trump’s executive order on gender could prompt some to head to Canada.

“I think that’s going to signal to the transgender community and the LGBTQ community that they could face difficult times ahead in the United States, even if they are in states that generally support the LGBTQ community,” she said.

Ramo said it will be interesting to see how Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board rules on those claims, particularly for U.S. citizens.

“That is what will test the system,” Ramo said.

Ramo said Trump appears to be picking up where he left off four years ago, albeit with a harsher tone.

The immigration lawyer said the last time Trump cracked down on H1B visas for foreign workers — which are granted to skilled workers in specialty occupations such as information technology and science — many companies arranged for talented foreign recruits to work from Canada.

However, Ramo said Canada’s recent reduction of visas for temporary foreign workers may make that “nearshoring” more difficult.

Ramo is also concerned that announced cuts by the federal Immigration Ministry could increase the time it takes to get work permits.

Protests, legal challenges follow Trump’s immigration, citizenship orders

Trump’s plan to deport millions of people means that some, particularly those who qualify for an exception for the Safe Third Country agreement because they have family in Canada, may seek other options — like heading to Canada, she said. Even if only a percentage came to Canada and made refugee claims, it could swamp the country’s already backlogged refugee system, she said.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller said his department is not yet seeing a spike in people trying to enter Canada to claim asylum, but is ready.

“We’re prepared for any eventuality,” Miller told Radio-Canada on Tuesday outside the cabinet retreat in Montebello, Que.

“People that are coming here, if they come in an irregular fashion, that is not the right way to do so and they will be turned away subject to the Safe Third Country agreement we have with the U.S.”

Trying to cross into Canada between border posts in frigid winter temperatures is dangerous, Miller added.

He said the government doesn’t expect large numbers of people to be deported to Canada and is carefully watching the measures being imposed in the United States.

“Canada will be firm and fair. We absolutely won’t be cruel,” he said.

Meanwhile, government departments say they are doing what they can to prepare.

In December, the federal government announced plans to spend $1.3 billion to improve security at the border, including $667.5 million for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), which patrols the Canadian side of the border, and $355.4 million for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), which operates at ports of entry.

Sgt. Charles Poirier is spokesman for the RCMP’s Eastern region, which includes the former informal Roxham Road crossing into Canada. The region is also where many of the irregular border crossings from Canada into the U.S. took place last summer.

He says the force is prepared should Canada see an influx of people trying to cross the border.

“We are ready at the border, and have been for the past few weeks,” Poirier said in an emailed response. “The number of migrants has dwindled in the past few weeks and we haven’t noticed any surge. Whereas in the summer we had daily activity in great number, nowadays it’s pretty calm.”

‘The world’s most expensive taxi service’

Rebecca Purdy, spokeswoman for the CBSA, said the agency is working closely with both Canadian and American law enforcement partners, including the RCMP, other Canadian police services, U.S. Homeland Security Investigations and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

In the event of an influx of asylum seekers, the CBSA has plans in place to maintain its operations, Purdy said.

“Depending on the scenario, the CBSA’s mitigation plans include additional resources at ports of entry, communication protocols and collaboration with local law enforcement, emergency medical services, other government services and U.S. partners,” she explained in an emailed response. “The agency has also strengthened its situational awareness and reporting, to ensure that it is prepared to respond to activities or events that could have an impact on its operations.”

However, Mark Weber, president of the Customs and Immigration Union which represents border officers, said the government should allow officers to patrol between border crossings. While provincial police in provinces like Quebec and Ontario have begun keeping an eye on the border, Weber said provincial officers don’t have the training to handle immigration and refugee cases and will have to bring people they find to a port of entry for a border officer to process asylum claims.

“Between ports of entry, we’re really concerned that what’s being developed is kind of the world’s most expensive taxi service where you have all these different agencies without the authority or knowledge how to do it, will just end up finding people and driving them to us at the port of entry.”

Weber said some parts of the border are already understaffed and that could get worse if there are public service staff cuts and Canada does get an influx of asylum seekers from the U.S.

“We’re not really ready for the volumes that could be. Worst case scenario, it’s going to be a bit of a mess.”